With that I give you "B"s latest comment on Pat's article, "The Varitek signing aftershock";

No player will be more closely associated with the modern day success of the Boston Red Sox than David Ortiz. From his post-season heroics to his franchise record setting 54 home runs in 2006, Ortiz has seemingly been the centerpiece of one of the most productive offensive attacks in baseball history.

The 2008 season, however, would write a different story. A season robbed by a torn sheath surrounding tendon in his wrist would end without David Ortiz gracing the top five in the American League MVP voting for the first time in five seasons (2003-2007).

While the Red Sox "made do" without Ortiz in the lineup at all, and without the David Ortiz fans had come to expect when he was, in 2008, success in the post-Manny Ramirez world of 2009 rides on a return to form for Big Papi.

I've wrote about it during his accent to greatness in 2003, comparing David Ortiz to the MVP level Mo Vaughn, and while at the time the comparison was a positive one, nearly six years later that same comparison is coming back around. Only this time, it is comes with nothing but the negative connotations of Vaughn's remarkable fall from the elite as his body seemed to give out on him in an instant.

Scary chart isn't it? For players that, according to Baseball Reference's similarity scores, at their primes of age 29-30 where the most similar players to each other in all of baseball history, and have similar body types, and both saw themselves coming off injuries...well...need I go further?

Mo Vaughn's entire 2001 season at, at age 33, was robbed of him due to injury, but the decline had begun and in 2002 he wasn't able to turn the tide.

But David Ortiz is not Mo Vaughn, and David Ortiz is still playing a majority of his games at Fenway Park. So his his decline predestined?

I combed every component stat that I could and couldn't find any dramatic difference aside from his ability to drive the ball consistently which is clearly tied to his injury last season that would indicate anything disastrous in store this season for Ortiz.

What I did find, was the clear evidence that the Red Sox can't afford him to slip.

1. Production from the DH role: Due to Ortiz' feats over the past 5 years, the Red Sox have gotten what could arguably be considered the best Designated Hitter in the history of baseball (Edgar Martinez makes a case here for sure). Even with Ortiz' injury, the Red Sox still had the second most production out of the DH role in the American League behind only the Chicago White Sox. Of course, Manny Ramirez filling Papi's shoes doesn't hurt too much. But even with Manny as the understudy, Red Sox DH's OPS fell from 1.042 in 2007 to .869 in 2008. A marginal Papi takes away one of the biggest position advantages the Red Sox hold over their competition.

2. When Papi hits, the Red Sox win. If you look at the difference in performance of players in wins and in losses last year, and you get past the glaring case that proves Kevin Youkilis to be the motor that moved the Red Sox wins last season, Papi jumps out at you as one of those players who if the Red Sox don't have producing, they are likely to lose.

Even in a down year, compare Papi's .300/.400/.605 to his .209/.321/.356 in games won vs. lost and his value in the Red Sox lineup is clear.

I'd love to sit up here and give you some concrete evidence that all is well with David Ortiz and you have nothing to worry about in 2009. Truth be told, I do think that is more likely the case than not. For my part, I see a .287, 38 HR, 128 RBI year ahead of him; not uber-dominant Papi, but better-than-most Papi. But there is an air of uncertainty around what has been the most certain thing in a Red Sox uniform this decade heading into the spring for the first time this year.

How worried are you?

Although he may only be 6th or 7th on the outfield depth chart, Wilkerson provides solid depth if his shoulder is healthy. He's always been a solid player when he's been on the field. He's only a year removed from hitting 20 home runs, gets on base at a decent clip, and possesses the rare ability of being a left handed hitter who hits lefties better than righties. He plays both corner positions above average as well as first base, which may be best suited for him because of his shoulder. With the fragility of Lowell, Drew, and Baldelli, it's a solid pick-up in case of the inevitable injury. He'll begin the year in Pawtucket where his shoulder will be closely monitored. 

Not to belabor an already conspicuous thought, but with the games played incentive that was so generously added by Mr. John Henry & Co., and Tito Francona's persistence on sticking with his veterans, one can safely presume that Varitek will get the vast majority of the at-bats coming from the catching position. So now the question becomes even more interesting, who gets the other fraction of the at-bats?

If the season started tomorrow, the rotation would be as follows: Lester, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Smoltz, and Penny, with Wakefield being the sixth man/spot-starter. However, I highly doubt either of Smoltz or Penny will be healthy opening day, never mind both of them.

So there's a good chance we'll see Wakefield filling up the final spot in the rotation to start off, baring an impressive spring by Buchholz and the impending decision on whether or not to start Masterson in the rotation or the bullpen.

Given all of these different scenarios, is there any reason for using a roster spot on someone whose sole purpose is being Wakefield's caddie when Wakefield himself may not even be in the rotation but every two or three weeks as a spot starter?

The logical answer here would be no. But let's think about this hypothetically for a minute. Let's say Smoltz needs all of April to ease back in after shoulder surgery and that Penny comes back ineffective after similar issues. This could leave Wakefield as the fourth starter to begin the season.

Unless you want to see Varitek catch Wakefield every fifth day, then one of George Kottaras or Dusty Brown are going to be needed. Both Kottaras and Brown caught knuckleballer Charlie Zink in Pawtucket last year, and with all reports considered, both of them did an equally adequate job doing so.

However, this is where things get tricky. Kottaras has zero options left (meaning he cannot be sent down unless he clears waivers), whereas Brown has two. Generally speaking, the latter is definitely more renowned for his defensive prowess. He did show a very surprising improvement with the bat last year, posting an .849 OPS. 

The only other reasonable option is Josh Bard, who was signed this off-season and welcomed back after serving a brief stint with the Sox back in 2006. For those who forgot, this is the same Josh Bard that failed horribly in catching Wakefield then.

If the back-up catchers role is going to be to serve as Wakefield's caddie, I'm not any more comfortable with Bard catching him than I am Varitek. Basically, Josh Bard is a poor-man's Jason Varitek, if that's possible. 

To me, having Brown as the backup catcher is a no doubter. He's flexible in that you can afford to send him down for Kottaras if he's just not cutting it. He has as much experience as any other option in catching the knuckleball. He's coming off a solid year with the bat last season.

Most importantly, he should provide at least as much offensive production as Varitek all while possessing a better arm. This would give Varitek more "off-days" to rest his aging knees.